What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Indonesia
Rapidly phasing out coal while accelerating use of solar can decarbonise power by 2050
Historically reliant on coal, Indonesia’s power sector can achieve full decarbonisation by 2050 while meeting rising electricity demand. To achieve this, Indonesia would rapidly deploy non-biomass renewables, particularly solar, while phasing out oil by 2030 and coal and gas by around 2040. This requires stronger renewables targets, a coherent policy framework, a credible implementation plan, and targeted investments.
Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
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Electrification is the key to transport decarbonisation, energy security and reduced reliance on biofuels
Indonesia is increasing biofuel use to manage oil shocks while scaling back support for public transport and electrification. A 1.5°C aligned pathway would see electricity meet nearly 80% of demand by 2050, with oil and biofuels nearly phased out by 2060. Delivering this requires targeted incentives to expand low-carbon transport, accelerate electrification, deploy charging infrastructure, and strengthen fuel economy standards.
Scaling up renewables-based electrification can meet rising industrial energy demand and achieve full decarbonisation by 2050
Aligning Indonesian industry with the Highest Possible Ambition scenario requires full decarbonisation by mid-century. Rapid electrification, complemented by hydrogen, can decouple emissions from growing energy demand. Delivering this transition requires stronger policy frameworks, accelerated renewables deployment, halting captive coal expansion, improved energy efficiency standards, and international cooperation and investment.